Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Dividend Warrior 1H2024 Portfolio Update - Power of BTO! Power of Banks!

Equity Portfolio Cost: S$606, 181

Equity Portfolio Market Value: S$702, 163

Equity Portfolio Unrealised Profit: +S$95, 982 (+15.8%)

Portfolio XIRR (1H2024): -5.1% (inclusive of dividends)

Dividends Collected (1H2024): S$21, 761 (-2% yoy)

Total Cumulative Dividends (2010 - 1H2024): S$303, 406

Current Cash & Cash Equivalents (SSB/T-bills): S$42, 000

(*All figures are accurate as of 28 Jun 2024)

Portfolio Actions in 1H 2024:

  • Accumulated more Alphabet at US$137, US$171 and US$178
  • Accumulated more Amazon at US$176 and US$180
  • Initiated position in Nvidia at US$124
  • Accumulated more Sheng Siong at S$1.50 and S$1.52
  • Accumulated more NetLink Trust at S$0.84
  • Partial divestment of Apple at US$190
  • Full divestment of Microsoft at US$409

New Milestone Unlocked - Becoming A Property Owner

My apologies for the lack of updates in 1Q 2024. I was too busy with my BTO flat renovation. Long-time readers of my blog would know that I kickstarted my plan to secure a ‘second pot of gold’ five years ago. The pandemic delayed the construction progress by a year. Finally, I am now a proud owner of a fully-paid HDB flat. My block is just a short 5-minute walk away from the future MRT station, community centre, mall & bus-stop. It is also located within a 1-km radius of four Primary Schools, one of which is the prestigious ACS Pri. In the context of Singapore’s residential property market, it’s a pretty decent location. Resale flats of similar size in the neighbouring estate of Bukit Batok are being transacted at more than double my BTO purchase price. Absolute madness! 

DBS The Out-performer

The three local banks delivered a strong set of results in the first half or 2024, especially DBS, which did a bonus share issue with the share price rising even further afterwards. The bank achieved significant growth in private wealth management fee income. The more uncertain the world becomes, the more ultra high-net-worth individuals will seek to park their wealth in a safe haven such as Singapore. We are kinda like the Switzerland of Asia. The banks’ higher dividend payout also helped to mitigate the decline in REITs’ distributions.  

DBS CEO Piyush Gupta said, “Our record earnings have given us a strong start to the year. We had broad-based business momentum as loans grew and both fee income and treasury customer sales reached new highs. While geopolitical tensions persist, macroeconomic conditions remain resilient and our franchise is well positioned to capture business opportunities. We are optimistic that total income and earnings will be better than previously guided and we will be able to deliver another year of strong shareholder returns.”

The biggest contributor to DBS's growth is due to Wealth Management. The family office business has seen significant growth, with many high-net-worth individuals and families seeking services for wealth preservation and succession planning. When DBS say they eye S$500 billion in wealth assets by 2026, that is rather conservative. I think the figure should be at least S$750 billion to S$1 trillion. According to Capgemini Research Institute's World Wealth Report 2024, global high-net-worth-individual wealth and population is growing exponentially at 5%.

Building The Pyramid Top

I spent the past 15 years building up my dividend portfolio and CPF savings. Now, with the addition of SSB and a fully-paid property to my asset allocation, I consider the foundation-building phase of my investment journey to be mostly done. Nice timing too. The era of near-zero interest rate and easy monetary policies from the US Fed is likely over. My heavy REIT-accumulation days are over. I already own enough REITs. My current portfolio is already well-positioned for future rate cuts. I already made hay while the Sun was shining. This ties in with my shift towards non-REIT stocks with strong balance sheets, such as US Tech, three local banks & Sheng Siong. Last year, I tried to stick to a ratio of 50:50 with regards to my capital deployment. For example, for every dollar invested in Sheng Siong, another dollar was invested in Apple. Moving forward, I shall tweak the ratio to 20:80. For example, for every $2 dollar invested in DBS, another $8 shall be invested in Alphabet. The bulk of my passive income from REITs shall be channeled towards US Big Tech. Rain or shine, every quarter accumulate. When the market is toppish, buy less. When the market is bearish, buy more. Never all-in. Never use margin. 

The peace of mind provided by a fully-paid HDB flat and sizeable CPF savings is priceless. A strong foundation allows me to better stomach the volatility in the US market. Subconsciously, I know I would always have something to fall back on. I just hope the government can continue to grow Singapore’s GDP over the long-term so that my new 99-year lease flat can appreciate in value. :P 

Possible Future Landlord

Alright, with the boring concrete strategy out of the way, let’s talk about some possible plans far far into the future. This is just me doing some fun brainstorming and speculation. Perhaps you can call it daydreaming even. Hey, doesn’t hurt to dream a little sometimes, right? Anyway, always prudent to have a Plan B, a viable way to get out of Singapore if there ever is a need to escape the escalating cost of living. Based on my simple research, the average rental rate for a flat of similar size near my neighbourhood is around S$2.5k per month. Let’s be super conservative and assume the rental rate stays the same after 10 years. S$30k per year rental income converted to Malaysian Ringgit or Thai Baht can go a long way in JB or Bangkok. I can live in those cities without compromising my quality of life as a young senior. Both countries are starting to offer more types of retirement Visas. Cheap condo rental. Delicious & cheap local food. 

During my trip to Bangkok last November, I observed the food pricing is one level lower than Singapore’s. Their restaurant pricing is similar to our Foodcourt pricing. Their foodcourt pricing is similar to our hawker pricing. And if you are willing to be more adventurous, their street food pricing is lower than anything you can find in Singapore. Their BTS train system is similar to our MRT network. I am planning another longer trip to Bangkok next year! :)

~ Don't Wait To Buy Real Estate. Buy Real Estate & Wait. ~

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Poof! Goes The CPF SA 'Shielding' Hack

After the Budget 2024 announcement recently, the local 'Pro-CPF 1M65' community immediately went into meltdown mode. CPF-rich members were bemoaning the removal of the CPF SA shielding hack. Here is my personal quick take on this issue. Perhaps some lessons to be learnt. 

Unlike other bloggers or influencers out there, I never ever talk about CPF shielding because it is a loophole in the system. Its removal is very much expected. It is called a ‘loophole’. Loopholes are meant to be closed eventually. When shielding was heavily promoted in the mainstream media in recent years, I knew it is only a matter of time before it is removed. To be honest, I am surprised the government allowed it to go on for so long. The lesson here is not to plan your retirement heavily on a loophole.

Do not put all your eggs in one basket. It is always prudent to build multiple income streams in our retirement plan. For me, I build my retirement nest egg like a pyramid or a soccer team. Things in life can change fast. Policies can change overnight. Having multiple passive income sources would prepare us to better adapt to changes. The only constant in life is change. Learn to roll with the punches and navigate through the changes. 

Never over-commit to a single retirement instrument. Similar to building a title-winning team. Some clubs go all-in and spent their entire transfer budget on a star striker, but unfortunately he suffers a serious injury and the club’s season goes down the drain. I treat CPF as my ‘goalkeeper’ but I am not spending my entire summer transfer funds on him.

Lastly, is sharing really caring? In local slang, we say "Limpei found a good lobang! Mai Gong Bo Jio!" I understand the feeling of uncovering a loophole can be exhilarating. You might even feel like a genius, but maybe it is better to curb that enthusiasmMaybe next time when we discover a loophole somewhere in the system, let's not get overly excited and go running to produce tonnes of social media content on said loophole before blasting it all over the internet. Food for thought...

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Dividend Warrior's FY2023 Portfolio Update - S$40k Record High Annual Dividends!

Equity Portfolio Cost: S$596, 851

Equity Portfolio Market Value: S$767, 106

Equity Portfolio Unrealised Profit: +S$170, 255 (+28.5%)

Portfolio XIRR (FY2023): +11.3% (inclusive of dividends)

Dividends Collected (FY2023): S$40, 139 (+15.6% yoy)

Total Cumulative Dividends (2010 - 2023): S$281, 645

Current Cash & Cash Equivalents (SSB/T-bills): S$37, 000

(*All figures are accurate as of 29 December 2023)

Portfolio Actions in Q4 2023:

  • Accumulated more Sheng Siong at S$1.54 and S$1.56
  • Accumulated more DBS at S$31.80 and S$32.60

2023 - Weathering The High Inflation Narrative

There is a saying that a bull market climbs a wall of worries. Despite various market worries, the 'Magnificent 7' US tech names kept trudging higher. Throughout a large part of 2023, the US tech positions I held (Microsoft, AMD, Nvidia & Alphabet) ran up alot on the AI hype while my S-REIT positions continued trending down month after month. Since the tech positions form an insignificant 2% of my overall portfolio, my itchy fingers decided to take profits and rotate the funds into accumulating more blue-chip REITs. I believe inflation would eventually normalise and the US Fed would signal a rate pivot. Currently, Apple and Tesla remain in my portfolio. On hindsight, I should have just let my winners run. Luckily, the late year-end rally in REITs kinda justified my rebalancing. Another lesson learnt. So yeah, besides allocating $30k to SSB in October and November, 2023 basically turned out to be a year of relentless accumulation of quality S-REITs and banks.

Nobody Knows Anything! Stop waiting for the stars to align!

At the risk of sounding like a broken record by now, I can't help but repeat myself in saying this. Time in market is better than timing the market. There is always something to worry about. Throughout the entirety of 2023, numerous experts, gurus and even self-proclaimed Masters out there were predicting an imminent recession for the US. Small US banks like Silicon Valley Bank & Signature Bank collapsed in days due to bank runs. The once-mighty Swiss banking giant, Credit Suisse, collapsed over one weekend. Central banks around the world kept hiking rates due to sticky inflation. Armed conflicts raging on in Ukraine and Gaza strip. Thanks to all these terrifying global events, finance Youtubers had a field day creating tonnes of fear-mongering videos with scary clickbait thumbnails, talking about economic armageddon. Why? For the views of course! For some morbid reason, humans love doomsday stories. 

Oh, and the thing about inflation is that it measures the magnitude of increase in prices. After speaking to people around me this year, I found out a lot of them misunderstood ‘inflation’. It is the pace of change in prices. Prices staying high doesn’t mean inflation is high. It’s about year-on-year comparison. The inflation spike and peak is behind us. As a result, this surprise year-end rally caught almost everyone off guard. By sitting out of the market, we risk missing out on the best days. By the time you withdraw capital from fixed income instruments, the market has already run up substantially. So once again, it has been proven that nobody truly knows what will happen to the economy. Not Warren Buffett, not Jerome Powell. A simple plan rigorously executed now is better than a perfect plan executed much later. Some people think if they wait long enough, the stars will align and the perfect buying opportunity will emerge. Timing the market bottom is a fool's game. Don't cling onto perfection. There is no perfect moment to invest. Say goodbye to perfection.

Achieved Record High Annual Dividends and Portfolio Value

In my previous post, I mentioned that I would ignore the 'noises' and ride out the storm as per my modus operandi. Lo and behold! My consistent accumulation of REITs throughout the rate hike cycle has been rewarded. Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet. Patience is power. Singapore REITs staged a fierce rally over the Christmas festive period, helping to boost my portfolio XIRR into positive territory. I got to enjoy both capital appreciation as well as dividend income growth. Right now, investors are scrambling to rebalance and reposition their portfolio for the rate cut cycle in 2024. Well, I already planted the seeds back in 2022 and 1H2023.  

If I would to sum up the year 2023 with regards to the investment industry, it is that nobody knows anything. Just stay the course. Resist messing around with a winning formula. Let the compounding effect picks up pace. Once the snowball starts going, it goes! Our portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more we touch it, the less we have. Avoid over-tinkering. Just leave it alone and go live your life, which brings me to my next point.

Creating A Lifetime Of Vacations

The highlight of 2023 has to be my first ever trip to Bangkok, Thailand! Beautiful city, friendly people and tasty local food. Truly the Land of Smiles! A return visit is definitely on the cards in 2024. Also planning a trip to Tokyo, Japan this year. That's the beauty of dividend investing. My overseas trips can be 'sponsored' by my dividend income stream, thus creating a lifetime of vacations. Power of CD! 💪

~ New Year! New Dreams! New Ways! ~

Happy New Year, everyone! 

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