Dividend Warrior 9M2024 Portfolio Update - SREITs Rally! New All-Time High In Portfolio Value!

Equity Portfolio Cost: S$611, 230

Equity Portfolio Market Value: S$784, 522

Equity Portfolio Unrealised Profit: +S$173, 292 (+28.3%)

Portfolio XIRR (9M2024): +4.1% (inclusive of dividends)

Dividends Collected (9M2024): S$34, 628 (+4.3% yoy)

Total Cumulative Dividends (2010 - 9M2024): S$316, 273

Current Cash & Cash Equivalents (SSB/T-bills): S$42, 000

(*All figures are accurate as of 30 Sep 2024)

Portfolio Actions in 3Q 2024:

• Accumulated Sheng Siong at S$1.51
• Accumulated Alphabet at US$163
• Accumulated Nvidia at US$113
• Accumulated Microsoft at US$410
• Subscribed to CICT preferential offering with small amount of excess units

My Barbell Approach Continues - 'Sheng Siong + Tech'

The US Federal Reserve finally began the rate cut cycle in September, seeking to normalise interest rates again as inflation trends closer to their 2% target and the US labour market softens. This pivot sent S-REITs sector into an incredible 7-week rally. My REITs-heavy portfolio shot back up to an all-time-high market value of S$784.5k! My total annual dividend income is on track to hit a record-high of S$42k this year, which translates to S$3.5k per month. 

Rate cuts provide a tailwind for REITs in three ways. First, as the risk-free rate trends down, the yield spread against REITs would widen. Investors chasing better yields would pile back into REITs, causing prices to rise. For example, if Singapore T-bills yield around 2% next year, then a 5% yield from a blue-chip REIT starts to look attractive. Second, lower interest rates would translate to higher NAV and healthier gearing levels for REITs. Third, DPU could increase as the REITs refinance at lower rates. However, we would only see the effects many quarters later. Honestly, after the relentless rally in September, I think most of the positive sentiments on REITs have been priced in for now. 

Surprisingly, the three local banks are still holding up well despite analysts and experts touting that rate cuts are bad for banks. In fact, if we take DBS recent 1-for-10 bonus share issue into consideration, its price is actually more like above S$40. Imagine trading in and out of the market, trying to time the dips and rallies perfectly. I would have missed out on this sudden S-REITs recovery. As a long-term investor, time in the market is better than timing the market. We never know when Mr Market might just make a U-Turn into 'euphoria' mode. By the time we gathered our wits and saw the news on mainstream media, it's probably too late to act. 

As for OCBC, its dividend visibility could be boosted if it can gain full ownership of Great Eastern. There is potential for excess capital from Great Eastern to be returned to OCBC shareholders if 100% ownership is successful. Furthermore, compared to DBS and UOB, OCBC has a larger exposure to the Greater Bay Area in China. It stands to benefit from the latest stimulus packages from the Chinese government.  

As I have mentioned in my previous portfolio updates, I have stopped accumulating REITs and banks in meaningful amounts since the beginning of 2024. Currently, I am holding more than enough REITs. I am comfortable with the 67% REITs allocation in my portfolio. With the recent run-up in prices, all the more reason I am in no rush to accumulate. More prudent to just sit back, enjoy the rally, collect the dividends and build up some dry powder. The same approach applies to my bank positions. They are at a comfortable 24% allocation level with juicy stable dividends. No compelling reason to accumulate at current lofty valuations. Just hang on tight and surf the wave. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best. 

With my core positions remaining intact, most of my buys in Q3 went into US tech companies. My ultimate goal is to hit 10% allocation for 5 tech companies in my portfolio within the next 5 years. These tech positions serve as an avenue for me to reinvest dividends from my income stocks. Even though Nvidia's recent earnings beat market expectations, investors thought the company's forward guidance was not spectacular enough, causing the price to dip sharply in August. I think Nvidia is a victim of its own success, setting the bar too high. The market is more likely to expect crazy growth numbers every quarter. But I am confident of its long-term growth trajectory in the AI sector.  Alphabet is embroiled in legal tussle with the US Justice Department. Google is accused of being a monopoly (again!). This is just the usual noise. There is just no realistic alternative to Google Search and Youtube. Took this opportunity to buy the dip. There was a period in August when the market was suddenly fearful of the AI bubble burst, sending Microsoft share price lower. You could say Microsoft suffered some 'collateral damage' post Nvidia earnings. Of course, I added Microsoft during that short period of market fear. Within a week or two, these positions recovered. This shows that we need to have a plan ready and be decisive when the opportunities present themselves, especially in the US market.  

(Source: The Straits Times)

(Sheng Siong 5-year dividend track record)

To balance out the volatility of my tech positions, I have been accumulating Sheng Siong shares every quarter since last year. This grocery retail company is a cash-generating machine with a strong balance sheet and sustainable dividend payout. Strong cash-flow and zero debt. This company is like the Costco or Walmart of Singapore. With more rate cuts expected in 2025, Sheng Siong's dividend yield of around 4.2% at $1.50 is starting to look pretty decent. Unlike Banks and REITs, Sheng Siong's earnings is not subjected to interest rate sensitivity. 

A secondary reason is that the government has been implementing support measures to help local residents cope with the rising costs of living in Singapore. Although core inflation has slowed down significantly this year, prices remain high. People tend to misunderstand this concept. Slower inflation just means prices are increasing slower, not going lower. In my opinion, the CDC vouchers would probably continue. In fact, each household will receive $300 in January 2025. These vouchers can be spent at supermarkets such as Sheng Siong, thus potentially benefiting the company. Such direct handouts from the government would be difficult to remove as it has proven popular especially among the low-income families and retired elderly. With the costs of eating out rising, more families could choose to cook meals at home more frequently, which also benefits Sheng Siong since most of its stores offer affordable fresh produce too. 

Lastly, as we already witnessed during the Covid-19 pandemic, supermarkets' earnings spiked as people were stuck at home during the lockdown period and social-distancing was mandatory. Sheng Siong is practically a pandemic-proof stock. I don't know about you guys, but I assume there is a decent chance of another pandemic in my lifetime. Prudent to be prepared.

BTO Renovation Completed!

Six months after collecting the keys to my HDB BTO flat, renovation works and furnishing is finally completed! I officially moved in last month. Loving that fresh, sweet smell of a new home (with 99-year lease). I went for a modern, minimalist and practical style. 

Oh, and Q3 HDB resale prices increased 2.5% QoQ. I have heard plenty of complaints and rants about expensive public housing in Singapore. Let's face it. Property has become just another asset that generates profits and income. It's happening everywhere in developed major cities like Hong Kong, Tokyo, London and New York. Housing is no longer considered a basic human need. Sad, really. But that's the way the capitalistic system is built. No turning back. This system requires a constant stream of home-buyers taking on mortgages from banks. The higher the property prices, the larger the mortgages, the more profits the banks make (more dividends for me >_<). I am just thankful that my flat is fully-paid with my CPF savings. Also glad that I am vested in banks and PropNex. Don't fight the system. Make the most out of it. Find ways to extract benefits from it.

Alright then, time to plan and get ready for my trip to Tokyo in November! ^^

Dividend Warrior 1H2024 Portfolio Update - Power of BTO! Power of Banks!

Equity Portfolio Cost: S$606, 181

Equity Portfolio Market Value: S$702, 163

Equity Portfolio Unrealised Profit: +S$95, 982 (+15.8%)

Portfolio XIRR (1H2024): -5.1% (inclusive of dividends)

Dividends Collected (1H2024): S$21, 761 (-2% yoy)

Total Cumulative Dividends (2010 - 1H2024): S$303, 406

Current Cash & Cash Equivalents (SSB/T-bills): S$42, 000

(*All figures are accurate as of 28 Jun 2024)

Portfolio Actions in 1H 2024:

• Accumulated more Alphabet at US$137, US$171 and US$178
• Accumulated more Amazon at US$176 and US$180
• Initiated position in Nvidia at US$124
• Accumulated more Sheng Siong at S$1.50 and S$1.52
• Accumulated more NetLink Trust at S$0.84
• Partial divestment of Apple at US$190
• Full divestment of Microsoft at US$409

New Milestone Unlocked - Becoming A Property Owner

My apologies for the lack of updates in 1Q 2024. I was too busy with my BTO flat renovation. Long-time readers of my blog would know that I kickstarted my plan to secure a ‘second pot of gold’ five years ago. The pandemic delayed the construction progress by a year. Finally, I am now a proud owner of a fully-paid HDB flat. My block is just a short 5-minute walk away from the future MRT station, community centre, mall & bus-stop. It is also located within a 1-km radius of four Primary Schools, one of which is the prestigious ACS Pri. In the context of Singapore’s residential property market, it’s a pretty decent location. Resale flats of similar size in the neighbouring estate of Bukit Batok are being transacted at more than double my BTO purchase price. Absolute madness! 

DBS The Out-performer

The three local banks delivered a strong set of results in the first half or 2024, especially DBS, which did a bonus share issue with the share price rising even further afterwards. The bank achieved significant growth in private wealth management fee income. The more uncertain the world becomes, the more ultra high-net-worth individuals will seek to park their wealth in a safe haven such as Singapore. We are kinda like the Switzerland of Asia. The banks’ higher dividend payout also helped to mitigate the decline in REITs’ distributions.  

DBS CEO Piyush Gupta said, “Our record earnings have given us a strong start to the year. We had broad-based business momentum as loans grew and both fee income and treasury customer sales reached new highs. While geopolitical tensions persist, macroeconomic conditions remain resilient and our franchise is well positioned to capture business opportunities. We are optimistic that total income and earnings will be better than previously guided and we will be able to deliver another year of strong shareholder returns.”

The biggest contributor to DBS's growth is due to Wealth Management. The family office business has seen significant growth, with many high-net-worth individuals and families seeking services for wealth preservation and succession planning. When DBS say they eye S$500 billion in wealth assets by 2026, that is rather conservative. I think the figure should be at least S$750 billion to S$1 trillion. According to Capgemini Research Institute's World Wealth Report 2024, global high-net-worth-individual wealth and population is growing exponentially at 5%.

Building The Pyramid Top

I spent the past 15 years building up my dividend portfolio and CPF savings. Now, with the addition of SSB and a fully-paid property to my asset allocation, I consider the foundation-building phase of my investment journey to be mostly done. Nice timing too. The era of near-zero interest rate and easy monetary policies from the US Fed is likely over. My heavy REIT-accumulation days are over. I already own enough REITs. My current portfolio is already well-positioned for future rate cuts. I already made hay while the Sun was shining. This ties in with my shift towards non-REIT stocks with strong balance sheets, such as US Tech, three local banks & Sheng Siong. Last year, I tried to stick to a ratio of 50:50 with regards to my capital deployment. For example, for every dollar invested in Sheng Siong, another dollar was invested in Apple. Moving forward, I shall tweak the ratio to 20:80. For example, for every $2 dollar invested in DBS, another $8 shall be invested in Alphabet. The bulk of my passive income from REITs shall be channeled towards US Big Tech. Rain or shine, every quarter accumulate. When the market is toppish, buy less. When the market is bearish, buy more. Never all-in. Never use margin. 

The peace of mind provided by a fully-paid HDB flat and sizeable CPF savings is priceless. A strong foundation allows me to better stomach the volatility in the US market. Subconsciously, I know I would always have something to fall back on. I just hope the government can continue to grow Singapore’s GDP over the long-term so that my new 99-year lease flat can appreciate in value. :P 

Possible Future Landlord

Alright, with the boring concrete strategy out of the way, let’s talk about some possible plans far far into the future. This is just me doing some fun brainstorming and speculation. Perhaps you can call it daydreaming even. Hey, doesn’t hurt to dream a little sometimes, right? Anyway, always prudent to have a Plan B, a viable way to get out of Singapore if there ever is a need to escape the escalating cost of living. Based on my simple research, the average rental rate for a flat of similar size near my neighbourhood is around S$2.5k per month. Let’s be super conservative and assume the rental rate stays the same after 10 years. S$30k per year rental income converted to Malaysian Ringgit or Thai Baht can go a long way in JB or Bangkok. I can live in those cities without compromising my quality of life as a young senior. Both countries are starting to offer more types of retirement Visas. Cheap condo rental. Delicious & cheap local food. 

During my trip to Bangkok last November, I observed the food pricing is one level lower than Singapore’s. Their restaurant pricing is similar to our Foodcourt pricing. Their foodcourt pricing is similar to our hawker pricing. And if you are willing to be more adventurous, their street food pricing is lower than anything you can find in Singapore. Their BTS train system is similar to our MRT network. I am planning another longer trip to Bangkok next year! :)

~ Don't Wait To Buy Real Estate. Buy Real Estate & Wait. ~

Poof! Goes The CPF SA 'Shielding' Hack

After the Budget 2024 announcement recently, the local 'Pro-CPF 1M65' community immediately went into meltdown mode. CPF-rich members were bemoaning the removal of the CPF SA shielding hack. Here is my personal quick take on this issue. Perhaps some lessons to be learnt. 

Unlike other bloggers or influencers out there, I never ever talk about CPF shielding because it is a loophole in the system. Its removal is very much expected. It is called a ‘loophole’. Loopholes are meant to be closed eventually. When shielding was heavily promoted in the mainstream media in recent years, I knew it is only a matter of time before it is removed. To be honest, I am surprised the government allowed it to go on for so long. The lesson here is not to plan your retirement heavily on a loophole.

Do not put all your eggs in one basket. It is always prudent to build multiple income streams in our retirement plan. For me, I build my retirement nest egg like a pyramid or a soccer team. Things in life can change fast. Policies can change overnight. Having multiple passive income sources would prepare us to better adapt to changes. The only constant in life is change. Learn to roll with the punches and navigate through the changes. 

Never over-commit to a single retirement instrument. Similar to building a title-winning team. Some clubs go all-in and spent their entire transfer budget on a star striker, but unfortunately he suffers a serious injury and the club’s season goes down the drain. I treat CPF as my ‘goalkeeper’ but I am not spending my entire summer transfer funds on him.

Lastly, is sharing really caring? In local slang, we say "Limpei found a good lobang! Mai Gong Bo Jio!" I understand the feeling of uncovering a loophole can be exhilarating. You might even feel like a genius, but maybe it is better to curb that enthusiasm. Maybe next time when we discover a loophole somewhere in the system, let's not get overly excited and go running to produce tonnes of social media content on said loophole before blasting it all over the internet. Food for thought...