Wednesday, January 9, 2013

DW Projected Dividends for 2013

  • Singtel (7 lots): S$1106
  • Starhub (10 lots): S$2000
  • M1 (7 lots): S$1015
  • SPH (5 lots): S$1200
  • AIMS AMP REIT (25 lots): S$2500
  • CACHE (10 lots): S$840
  • Sabana REIT (6 lots): S$504
  • Frasers CentrePoint Trust (10 lots): S$1080
  • CapitaMall Trust (7 lots): S$672
  • Suntec REIT (6 lots): S$552
  • First REIT (10 lots): S$672
  • PLife REIT (4 lots): S$352
Estimated Total Dividends + Distributions: S$12, 493 

Potential DPU Increases
A few REITs have the potential to increase their DPU in 2013. CapitaMall Trust's AEI efforts at Plaza Singapura, Atrium@Orchard, Clarke Quay, IMM and Raffles City will come to fruition in 2013. Frasers CentrePoint Trust's AEI works at Causeway Point have already been largely completed as you read this post. Furthermore, I believe there will be positive rental reversions for the leases under these two retail REITs. 

AIMS AMP REIT's new 5-storey ramp-up warehouse at 20 Gul Way will complete Phase 2 construction by 2013 year end. Phase 1 is already completed and the rental contribution will be coming in 1Q2013. After Phase 2 comes online, the DPU is expected to increase by 15% eventually. 

DPU Decreases
Suntec City's AEI work will affect the DPU slightly. Sabana REIT will no longer be distributing 100%. I predict a reasonable 90% distribution in 2013. All these DPU decreases have been factored in my calculations above. But, it is just my personal estimations. If DPU does not drop as much as I predicted, then all the better.^^

Peace Out,
Dividend Warrior


CreateWealth8888 said...

Huat year for you!

Anonymous said...

hi DW, u may have bought the REITs at a lower price, but right now, is it advisable to buy where majority of the REITs price have increased?

Anonymous said...

hi DW

Am i right to say that if the DPU stay stagnant, that mean dividend yield will decrease over the year?

And does most of the reits DPU stay stagnant or they will only increase upon opportunity?

Please advise
THanks and have a blessed 2013!

Kylus McKinnon said...

Shalom bro pls fb msg me when u hv time. Cheers!

SG Index Investor said...

Even though I'm more inclined towards index investing myself, I must admit that your blog has inspired me to find out more about dividend stocks, particularly REITs.

Seeing how 8 out of 12 stocks you hold in your projected dividends are REITS, do consider posting more guides on them to educate investors! I read your "Guide to Picking Singapore REITs", it was very helpful.

LilQuack said...

Hi DW,

May I ask on the method that you used to project these figures? Is it based on past dividend payout yields?

Great blog btw, hope to see your portfolio flourish!


Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi CreateWealth8888,

Huat year to you too!

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi Anonymous,

Prices of REITs are really high now. I will advise against buying.

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi SG Index Investor,

I am glad u find my guide useful.

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi LiiQuack,

Yes. I used 2012 dividend info. ^^

LilQuack said...

Hi DW, thanks for your reply!

You've mentioned a few times about correction after XD. What does XD stand for? :D

Anonymous said...

Hi DW!

Great blog! Will def check back here often for inspirations.

A number of sources have hinted at the possibility of a large global stocks crash/depression soon this year. It's probably fueled by lingering issues like the US Debt-Crisis and the Eurozone crisis etc...

What do you think?


Bowie said...

Dear DW,

I did some calculations and lets say if you have a 7% yield, that is around 180k.

Having 180k to invest is a tremendous amount! I take my hat off to you for saving up and making so much at the tender age of 30 this year.

Cheers DW! I wish for your good continued fortune. I've been inspired so much by your blog that I've recently started my first 30k in investing :)

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi LilQuack,

XD means Ex-dividend, which also means excluding dividends.
In other words, if u buy the stock on XD onwards, u will not get the latest batch of dividends.
Usually, the stock price will dip on XD day. Of course, there are exceptions too, like starhub. Its price kept rising even after XD.

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi CryH,

Thanks for the compliment! I would love to give u more inspiration. ^^
The threat of another US debt ceiling fight is very real. Based on the political brinkmanship seen in the previous fight, I dun think it will be any different this time round.
US credit rating might get downgraded again.
Having said all that, however, I dun think there will be a depression. A market correction is more likely. Good opportunity to get quality dividend stocks.

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi Bowie,

Yes, u are right. My invested capital is around $181k as of Jan 2013.
Thanks for the compliment! Sometimes I find it hard to believe I actually build up such a big portfolio over 4 years. Lol....
I am glad to have inspired u. ^^

Anonymous said...

How about going into Trust now that REITS prices are so high and dividend yield have drop to below 7% for most REITS.

Trusts like citygas, K green? They are still paying more than 7% in dividend?

Anonymous said...

How about liquidating everything and wait for the next big correction?

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi Anonymous,

Wow! You can read my mind! I am thinking of entering HPH Trust as a proxy to China's growth.

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi Anonymous,

I must admit, I am rather tempted to take profit and wait for the next market correction.

However, what if the market correction only comes after a few years? My money will be sitting in the bank.

Secondly, I got most of my stocks at pretty low prices, so even if a market correction arrives, I might not be able to buy back at lower prices. For example, even during a significant market correction, I dun think Starhub will fall below $2.40! And even if Starhub falls below $2.40, I am ready to buy more.^^

Therefore, in the end, I usually prefer to accumulate more dividend stocks during market weakness.

MoB said...

great going on. just saw my own statement of dividends and feel so disappointed. yours is a good idea.

FoodieFC said...

Huat AH!! ENvy u DW!


Jerry said...

Hi, what is the minimum amount required to start purchasing REITs?

Bowie said...

Hi Jerry,

REITs come in lots of 1000. so let's say each share is $1000, it would be a minimum of $1000. however, there is a minimum commission that trading platforms would charge, eg UOB Kayhian charges $25 min commission. You'll have to do the maths. I tend to buy amounts of $10,000 but that is just me.

Bowie said...

EDITED: Error in share amount.
Hi Jerry,

REITs come in lots of 1000. so let's say each share is $1, it would be a minimum of $1000. however, there is a minimum commission that trading platforms would charge, eg UOB Kayhian charges $25 min commission. You'll have to do the maths. I tend to buy amounts of $10,000 but that is just me.

Terry said...

Hi DW,

Has been a follower of your blog for months, love your ideas and method in accumulating wealth that inspire me to change my investing strategy.

By the way, wish to ask for your opinion on Saizen Reit, do you think is risky or worth investing?
In view that this is a Japan-focused Reit.

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

HI Masterofboots,

Thanks for the compliment!^^
Dun be disappointed. U can slowly build up your portfolio too.

All the best!

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Yo Foodie!

I hope u Huat big big too!^^

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi Jerry,

I think Bowie did a pretty good explanation.

Btw, thanks Bowie! ^^

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi Terry,

Thanks for following my blog. I am glad to have inspired you.

This is my personal take on Saizen REIT. 1) Potential of natural disasters like earthquakes and tsunami. 2) Forex risks bcos the rental is in Japanese Yen. 3) Falling property prices in a deflationary economy.

On a positive note, most people rent houses in Japan. So, the demand is strong.

Personally, I will not be vested. I have lots of REITs already. But you have to make ur own decision. Good luck!

Unknown said...

Hi DW,

What do you think of Sabana reits? The yield is high. Able to invest for long for dividends? Now it is after XD..

Dividend Tech Warrior said...

Hi Karen,

Sabana will no longer be distributing 100% of their rental income this year. It will drop to 90%.

At the current price of 1.16, the yield will drop to 7.4%. Still reasonable IMHO.

Secondly, around 40% of the leases is up for renewal this year. Hopefully, the management can do a good job.

I will recommend getting a few lots, but do NOT go all in. Keep some spare cash.

Good luck! ^^


Hey i am a new investor. Just curious on how an individual are entitled to the dividend. What the different between expiry date and record date of dividend. Lets say i am using the standard chartered trading. the expiry date of singtel share is on 24 dec 2012. Does it mean if i buy share on 24 dec 2012, i will be entitled to the dividend. confused on the settlement date and transaction date and stuff too. Can anyone help me, or teach me?

Dividend Tech Warrior said...


Using your example. Singtel Ex-date on 24 dec. so, if u buy on 24 dec and onwards, u will NOT get the latest round of dividends.

But if u keeping holding and not sell, u will get the next dividends in 2013.

den said...

Hi DW,

For long term dividend investor, would you advise to hold for more blue chips stock and place less bet on cyclical stock like industrial reit ?
From previous crisis, most reit price can drop to a very substantial amount, and this amount can take a few years just to recover back to pre-crisis price. And the few years dividends received during the crisis years might not be enough to compensate for the capital lost.
Should we place lesser bet on cyclical stock especially if it is already traded at a relatively high price ?

Thanks in advance.