Dividend Warrior's Q1 2023 Portfolio Update - On Track To Exceed S$38k In Annual Dividends!

(Total cumulative dividends: S$249, 321)

Portfolio Cost: S$589, 075

Portfolio Market Value: S$740, 355

Portfolio Overall Unrealized Profit: +S$151, 280 (+25.68%)

Portfolio XIRR (Q1 2023): +12.14% (inclusive of dividends)

Dividends Collected (Q1 2023): S$7, 814 (+43% yoy)

Total Cumulative Dividends (2010 - Q1 2023): S$249, 321

Current Cash Warchest: S$36, 723

(*All figures are accurate as of 31 Mar 2023)

Portfolio Actions in Q1 2023:

• Accumulated OCBC at S$12.30
• Accumulated UOB at S$28.90
• Accumulated Mapletree Industrial Trust at S$2.33

Long-Term Compounding On Solid Dividend Payers
In Q1 2023, the three local banks raised their dividend payouts. DBS is the leader in this respect by paying out a hefty special dividend. This helps to boost my Q1 2023 dividends by 43% year-on-year compared to Q1 2022. On track to exceed S$38k in annual dividends. Alibaba, US Big Tech and blue-chip REITs staged a late rally towards the end of March, thus boosting my portfolio YTD returns into positive territory.

The recent banking crisis in the US & EU sparked fears of financial contagion. Almost everyone was shouting about an impending market crash similar to GFC 2008/2009. Experts were saying the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank & Credit Suisse was the first domino to fall. More bank failures are coming, this is another ‘Lehman Brothers’ moment they said! 

Well, long-time readers of my blog would know what I tend to do in turbulent times like these. I did what I do best. I invoked my warrior spirit and bought the dip. Nibbled some OCBC, UOB and Mapletree Industrial Trust. The compounding of quality dividend stocks never stops. How does Dividend Warrior stay unfazed and calm during a market turmoil? You can refer to my old post here.

Did Not Follow The Flight To Safety
When others were rushing into fixed deposits, T-bills and Singapore Savings Bonds, I was busy accumulating more solid dividend payers. I believe dividend growth investing has a better potential of generating more cash-flow over the long run. I am not an old retiree in his 60s or 70s. Time is still on my side. So I can still afford to weather the storm and reap the rewards much later. No need to go into capital-preservation mode yet. These fixed income assets are not going to help me beat high inflation. Besides, my substantial CPF savings already formed the fixed income component of my portfolio.

Some people told me that they are just ‘parking’ their funds in fixed-income instrument for the short-term. Once their T-bills and fixed deposits mature, they can deploy the funds back into the market. Sure, they could get their timing absolutely right. Or horribly wrong. Maybe by the time they get their funds, the market already rallied way beyond their expectations. The boat left and they got stuck at the port. After merely one week, the banking system seems to have stabilised. Investors are already moving onto the next theme in the news cycle, which is the Fed pivot. This time last year, I remember everyone was super focused on the Russia-Ukraine war. After a year, nobody really cares about that anymore. This goes to show that time in market is always better than timing the market for long-term investors.

I prefer to focus on the things within my control. Stop wasting time and energy worrying about things that are out of our control. And this is a habit. You don’t become what you want. You become what your habits take you. The harder the battles, the sweeter the victory. A lot of people have this ‘wait and see’ mentality. Wait for the banking crisis to pass. Wait for the Fed to pivot. Wait for inflation to come down. Wait, wait, wait. They take no concrete actions towards their goals. They procrastinate. They wait along the sidelines. Sometimes we just have to go for it! Get our hands dirty. Get our feet wet. This is how we grow. 

BTFD Still Works Thanks To Swift Bailouts
Even the usually bearish Michael Burry has respect for our generation. The generation of BTFD. In my opinion, BTFD works for the current generation of investors because the top policymakers currently running the US Federal Reserve still have PTSD of the 2008 GFC. Decision-makers like Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen are haunted by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the near collapse of AIG. Banks are simply still too big to fail.

Back then, the world was on the brink of a new Great Depression. There is no way in hell these veterans would allow that to happen again. Moral hazard be damned. So, when the latest bank run crisis unfolded, they acted swiftly with a heavy hand to squash contagion risks. Jerome Powell even had to lower the March rate hike from 50bps to 25bps. He expects credit-tightening to taper inflation in the coming months. The Swiss regulators also engineered a swift  rescue of Credit Suisse in one weekend. They basically ‘force fed’ Credit Suisse to UBS. As a result, the market dips tend to be short-lived nowadays. I think it would take another generation before most people truly forget about the horrors of 2008/2009.


Lean On The Capable & Rich
I know my own limitations and capabilities, so I stay within my circle of competency. Let the management get on with their job and stay out of their way. Let the experts work their magic. Sit back, relax and watch the cash flow in. Benefit from the spending of others. Every time someone spends at a mall or shops online, I benefit indirectly because I am vested in retail and logistics REITs. Every time a property agent closes a deal, I get to benefit through PropNex. Every time a private doctor bills a wealthy patient at Mount Elizabeth hospital, I benefit through ParkwayLife REIT (PLife). The retrofitting and major renovations (Project Renaissance) at Mount Elizabeth are scheduled for completion by 2025. It will benefit from a huge rent step-up of 25.3% in 2026 after the completion of Project Renaissance. Use the economy as your personal ATM. An ATM that keeps on giving you cash.

Achieve FIRE on dividends. Take advantage of the capitalistic system. Cash flowing into your pockets as you sleep. I see people complaining about ‘evil’ landlords charging higher rentals. Don’t fight them, join them. Complaining will never get you anywhere near your goals. Instead, you should own a piece of the economic pie. Have your meals, bills and vacations ‘sponsored’ by dividends.  

Attractiveness Of Dividend Growth Investing
I give myself a pay raise every year. How? By investing in high quality dividend stocks. Imagine walking into your 9-5 job every morning, knowing that your passive income can cover your living expenses and more. That is the secret financial power I want to enjoy. There was a day when I was chilling at Starbucks with my dark mocha frappe after lunch. Logged into my bank account to see more than $1k dividends credited. It was a lovely feeling! As my dividend cashflow increases, my quality of life also improves. Finally completed my Apple ecosystem with the purchase of the MacBook Air and Airpods Pro!

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Go For Sustainable FIRE, Not Miserable FIRE

Build A Foundation and Compound It

The average Joe on the street has been affected by escalating inflation since early 2022.  Even those people who have supposedly achieved FIRE are starting to struggle with expenses because their passive income could not keep up with inflation. We are facing a cost of living crisis across the world. It is during periods like this that I am glad I have built a substantial dividend portfolio. The growing cash flow from my portfolio enables me to improve my quality of life, gradually. 13 years ago when I started my investing journey, my strategy was scoffed at. I was saving up like mad, working an extra job on weekends. Cheap food, cheap clothes, cheap shoes, cheap phone, cheap laptop, no overseas trips. In other words, trade-offs were made. I knew I had to do hardcore saving and make some sacrifices to build a strong foundation. Told myself the fruits will come later and it would all be worth it. Told myself to keep grinding in silence.

In 2020 when the pandemic caused widespread panic and uncertainty around the world, I wasn't too affected. In fact, I was thriving. Even started my YouTube channel in the middle of a pandemic! I knew I could fall back on my portfolio. All those years of grinding finally paid off. I believe lifestyle inflation is actually fine as long as you do it sustainably and not on credit. Build up a huge passive cashflow before you even embark on quality of life upgrades. There is a saying in Chinese '先苦后甜' which means endure the bitterness first before tasting the sweetness later. Words of wisdom indeed. Unfortunately, most people prefer instant gratification. 

These are the top videos from my channel. Enjoy and thanks for the support all these years!

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Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust AGM on 17 Jan 2023

On the 17^th of January 2023, I attended the AGM of Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLCT) at Intercontinental Hotel Singapore. These are some interesting/important points brought up during the AGM. An early disclaimer. My note-taking skill has become rusty compared to my college days, so please pardon some missing details. This is more like a paraphrased summary :)

 

The CEO’s Presentation:

Rental growth rate in the UK, Germany & Dutch markets are CPI-linked. So given the higher inflation currently seen in Europe, FLCT should be poised to enjoy positive rental reversions in 2023.

Management is in advanced negotiations to lease the remaining vacant space in 2023. Only very little space left. Lease expiry profile remains strong. No more than 19.2% of GRI expires in any given year until 2032.

Most of FLCT’s energy costs is passed on through to tenants.

FLCT has one of the lowest gearing ratio in the S-REITs sector at 27.4%. A healthy aggregate leverage should help to tide it over the current higher rate environment.

 

Q & A Session with Unitholders:

Question: What is the strategic direction of FLCT? Will commercial assets be sold to buy more logistics/industrial (L&I) assets?

CEO answers: The sale value of Cross Street Exchange building was just too attractive. The property was not sold because it was underperforming. Moving forward, FLCT aims to have a slightly higher allocation to L&I sector. Not looking to buy more commercial properties. Still satisfied with the current rental yield, rental growth and occupancy of commercial assets in FLCT’s portfolio.

 

Question: Looking at the debt maturity profile, there is sizable refinancing needs in 2024 in the Euro currency. Is it a concern having a huge amount of Euro-denominated debt?

CFO answers: FLCT already has facilities in place to refinance the debts in 2023. Management is currently focusing on refinancing for 2024. Would have some impact on distributable income. The latest interest rate sensitivity check is for every 50bps rise in interest rate, the DPU will be down 0.05 cents approximately. The management already hedged 82% of debts to fixed rates, so only the debt on floating rates will be affected. Natural hedging is also done by borrowing in the currencies of those countries where acquisitions are made. Euro-denominated debts is not in excess of FLCT’s portfolio asset value in Europe. There is no over-weightage of debt in any single currency.

 

Question: Is there danger of further rise in the cap rate?

CEO answers: Cost of debt and rental income growth expectations affect the cap rate. For commercial assets, there is no income expectation function in the market. His gut feel is that there will be no more significant rise in cap rate. FLCT has ‘taken the medicine’ so as to speak.

 

Question: What is FLCT’s geographical focus for future growth? What are the characteristics the management look for when they do acquisitions?

CEO answers: Comfortable in the current geographical allocation. Difficult to expand into new markets because of higher interest rates. Like to partner with the sponsor on development projects as they have people on the ground, staff that can speak German or Dutch and have local knowledge/connections. Continue to mainly grow L&I assets a little more, supported by commercial assets. But never say never, if a compelling deal comes up on their radar, FLCT is ready to take action since it has a healthy gearing ratio. Acquisitions must be DPU-accretive. But such deals are tough to find in current market conditions.

Question: Concerns about the lower occupancy rate at some UK properties namely Farnborough Business Park and Blythe Valley Business Park.

CEO answers: Seeing the tenants either looking to take up less space or going for better quality space. There is a flight to quality. The pandemic era work-from-home trend is starting to reverse as companies tell their employees to return to the office for more days. This is his personal opinion. Due to economic uncertainties, the labour market is becoming an employer market where companies have more say and make more demands from employees. Hopefully, this trend continues.

 

Question: FLCT has over S$217m in divestment capital gains. How is management planning to use this?

CEO answers: It could be used to mitigate the loss of income from the sale of Cross Street Exchange. But FLCT has to borrow/take on debt in order to distribute these capital gains to unitholders.

CFO answers: The impact of forex on DPU would be AUD down 3%, Euro down 7% and British Pound down 5% on average.

Question: Is there a final target for the gearing ratio?

CEO answers: The current gearing ratio of 27.4% is a nice place to be in for now, due to higher interest rates. But eventually, the target is mid-30s once interest rates and cap rates normalise in the future.

 

Question: Can the management give their take on the impact of Ukraine-Russia conflict on FLCT’s operations?

CEO answers: FLCT’s European portfolio remains resilient despite the war. Occupancy rates remain high. Tenants are sourcing supplies from outside of Ukraine. Do not foresee any huge impact on L&I leasing demands.

 

Question: What is the capital allocation for future acquisitions?

CEO answers: We are still in a rising rate environment and a price-resetting phase in the property market. FLCT wants to buy DPU-accretive assets but we must be patient and selective. When a great opportunity comes along, FLCT is ready to execute.

 

Question: Many S-REITs, not only FLCT is facing the twin headwinds of rising interest rates and forex risks. Some investors are even switching their funds to fixed income instruments. Can the management provide some reassurances to allay unitholders fears?

CEO answers: On the challenge of higher rates, FLCT can try to control its gearing ratio and hedging the debts to fixed rate. But honestly, we are at the mercy of the US Federal Reserve because the entire world follows them. No amount of mitigation measures can fully shield FLCT from the impact of rate hikes. Forex risks would be harder to mitigate due to its volatility and unpredictability. Can only do hedging to lower the risk.

Chairman answers: We can sit here all day discussing about interest rates and macro-economic issues, but even the Central Bankers who are supposed to know what they are doing, are confused too. The best thing we can do is to stay in countries that have proven to manage economies well throughout many economic cycles.

 

Question: Does FLCT own any treasury units?

CFO: No, FLCT does not own any treasury units.

 

A sumptuous buffet was provided after the AGM ended. The space is a little cramped though.